2023 March Madness: Best bets, upsets for first-round of NCAA Tournament

Are you ready to bet on the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament?

Firing first-round wagers is one of my favorite pastimes, and we’ve gone on a pretty solid run over the past two tournaments at FOX Sports. I absolutely love the challenge of balancing perception and reality during the first two days of college basketball’s biggest event.

And here’s hoping my Texas future bet from November comes home and the Longhorns cut down the final nets at NRG Stadium in Houston.

Here are my best bets for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, with odds via FOX Bet.

Furman (+5.5) vs. Virginia

Furman has the methodical offense to combat Virginia’s slow style. The Paladins are the nation’s No. 1 team in two-point offense because they constantly have four shooters on the floor and rarely turn the ball over. Making the extra pass is crucial for Furman, and as long as it keeps rotating the rock, it’ll have every chance to hang around.

PICK: Furman (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

Missouri–Utah State Over 155

Former Villanova head coach Jay Wright said this game might reach the 90s on CBS’ “Selection Sunday” show. I’m not quite that high, but these two teams could settle in the 80s on a bad day. The Tigers and Aggies are both Top-15 in offensive efficiency, and they’re far from sensational defensively. This is one of the higher first-round totals for a reason.

PICK: Over 155 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Oral Roberts (+6.5) vs. Duke

The Golden Eagles busted a bunch of brackets two years ago when they upset Ohio State in the first round. A huge chunk of that core is still intact, including senior Max Abmas, who averages over 20 points per contest. Oral Roberts makes its twos and threes and shoots almost 80% from the foul line. You’re also getting an extra point or so because the masses love betting Duke.

PICK: Oral Roberts (+6.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

Northwestern (-125 ML) vs. Boise State

I’m not a Northwestern fan by any stretch of the imagination, but Chris Collins has two very solid senior guards in Boo Buie and Chase Audige. The Cats are also very stingy on defense, ranking in the Top 25 in several advanced metrics. I’m choosing to lay the moneyline here instead of 1.5 points. The last thing I want is NU to escape with a one-point win, and I lose my bet. No thanks.

PICK: Northwestern (-125 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright

PICK: Penn State (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Michigan State (-130 ML) vs. USC

This line is anywhere from -1.5 to -2, and much like the Northwestern game above, I’m not messing around with a little spread with a Big Ten team. That conference tends to win in the ugliest ways in the NCAA Tournament, and I’m not going to be surprised for one second if Sparty wins by a point or two. Michigan State is great on the glass, and it doesn’t hurt having coach Tom Izzo instead of Andy Enfield.

PICK: Michigan State (-130 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright

St. Mary’s (-4) vs. VCU

VCU is shaping up to be a very public underdog in Las Vegas. More tickets are showing for VCU, yet the line has moved from St. Mary’s -3 to -3.5 to -4. Hmmm. The Gaels shot an extremely uncharacteristic 33% from the floor in the WCC title game against Gonzaga, and I’m betting that regresses the right way here. And if the Rams can’t turn defense into offense, they’re cooked.

PICK: St. Mary’s (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points

Providence (+4) vs. Kentucky

Speaking of public sides, Kentucky is another first-round monster. Obviously, that doesn’t mean the Wildcats can’t and won’t cover, but I love going against teams laying inflated numbers. Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons told me “all the cool kids” are on Kentucky, yet respected play is holding this line steady. I’ll take the points with undervalued Providence.

PICK: Providence (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

Miami (-2) vs. Drake

We think Miami big man Norchad Omier (ankle) is going to play. I’ve been told it’s a big deal that the Hurricanes are playing one of the latest games on Friday night instead of playing early Thursday. Never underestimate that extra 24 to 36 hours for recovery purposes. Drake is getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers and while it’s valid, this feels like a great buy low spot on Miami’s explosive offense.

PICK: Miami (-2 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2 points

Gonzaga (-15) vs. Grand Canyon

Everything Grand Canyon can do, Gonzaga does better. Ken Pomeroy says the Zags are the nation’s most efficient offense and you won’t get any arguments from me. Grand Canyon is awful defensively and conventional wisdom says Gonzaga should basically get whatever it wants from the floor. And if the Antelopes are sloppy with the basketball, this is a blowout by the 30-minute mark.

PICK: Gonzaga (-15 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 15 points

Kent State (+4.5) vs. Indiana

This is a pretty trendy underdog, which makes me a little nervous, but it’s impossible to ignore the way Kent State tested itself in the non-conference. Close road losses to Houston, Gonzaga and Charleston will only help the Golden Flashes in their push for a first-round upset. Sincere Carry is a special guard and if Kent State’s defense can limit Trayce Jackson-Davis’ touches, look out.

PICK: Kent State (+4.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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