2023 RBC Heritage odds, predictions: Favorites and picks
By Vik Chokshi
FOX Sports Gambling Staff
From Brooks Koepka showing the world he’s back to Jon Rahm displaying his dominance over the field in a comeback for the ages, Masters Week did not disappoint.
We now turn our gambling attention to Harbour Town in Hilton Head Island, S.C., for this week’s RBC Heritage.
While some big stars are missing — most notably Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama — the field is littered with top talent among the 132 golfers.
Surprisingly, defending champion Jordan Spieth (+1800) is not the betting favorite this week. That honor goes to Scottie Scheffler, currently listed at +800 at FOX Bet to win it all.
Over the past 10 years, players who have gone deep into contention at the pressure-filled Masters have struggled at Harbour Town. In fact, six of the past 10 winners of this tournament missed the Masters cut entirely. Keep this in mind when placing your wagers this week.
The Pete Dye-designed course is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. The course rewards accuracy over distance, taking the driver out of play. So, when you are putting together your betting card, look for surgeons over big bombers.
Now that we teed off with the basics, let’s approach my outright portfolio for this tournament.
Nick’s Masters recap
Nick Wright shares his reaction and biggest takeaways of the Masters.
Colin Morikawa +1800 at FOX Bet
While Morikawa finished T10 at the Masters, this hasn’t been the season start he hoped for. A win here would change that in a flash. And if there is a course tailor-made for Morikawa’s game, this is the one.
As mentioned above, this week is all about precision and iron play, which is where the 26-year-old thrives. One of the key metrics for success here is “Strokes Gained: Approach,” and Morikawa ranks second in that category.
He’s also 3-for-3 in made cuts at Harbour Town, with a T7 in 2021.
Cam Young +2000 at FOX Bet
Young is striking the ball well, quietly finishing T7 last week in just his second Masters. In his debut here last year, he shot a field-low 63 in the first round and finished T3. This is no small feat considering the competition and course.
Young is going to start winning a lot of tournaments really soon because that’s just how good he is. What better time than this weekend, with us having a couple of bucks on him?
Justin Thomas +2500 at FOX Bet
This feels like déjà vu. Last year, Spieth missed the cut at the Masters and then went on to win the RBC Heritage. Last week, Thomas missed the cut, and … you see where I’m going with this.
Thomas had an epic meltdown at Augusta, which is the only reason why you are getting a golfer of his caliber at 25-1. Look for him to be extra motivated after last week’s debacle.
Recency bias aside, he’s pretty good at this game of golf. Thomas has gained strokes in approach in five of his last seven starts and finished T11 here in 2015 and T8 in 2020.
His iron game and steely-eyed focus should help him play deep into Sunday. At +2500, Thomas is an auto-play for me.
Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 at FOX Bet
Fitzpatrick has finished in the top-15 in three of his last five appearances at Harbour Town, and this is one of his favorite courses. I love small tidbits like that because no matter what level of golfer you are, you play more confidently at the courses you love.
If you watched the Netflix documentary Full Swing, you know Fitzpatrick looks to the analytics to gain an edge at every tournament. This is an event where his precision on the course and data intake off of it will keep him in the running.
Shane Lowry +3000 at FOX Bet
Lowry is a great ball-striker and comes into this tournament in great form. Last week, he hit 50/56 fairways (89.29%). If you filter the data just for his past five starts, he has finished in the top 10% of the field in SG: T2G in four of those past five starts.
Lowry’s course history at Harbour Town is great, finishing in the Top 10 in three of the past four years. I love him at this price.
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I love betting on golf long shots. There’s just something thrilling about holding a lottery ticket deep into Sunday. It also presents you with multiple hedging opportunities if you want to eliminate some of your risks.
That being said, here are two guys definitely worth sprinkling some pizza money on:
Si Woo Kim +6000 at FOX Bet
Again, approach play will be the name of the game this week. If you drill down even deeper, 150-200 yard play will be the key to this week’s success, which is where Kim has been money. He ranks ninth from 150-175 yards and 10th from 175-200 yards over the past three months.
He finished tied for second here in 2018 and is in a great bounce-back spot. This number will get much shorter by the end of Thursday.
Justin Rose +6500 at FOX Bet
He finished tied for 14th last year, has played well this year (won AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) and his skill set fits this course.
This wager is also a numbers play because I see this getting closer to 50-1 before the tournament starts.
You can do much worse than getting a few bucks down on Rose to win this thing at 65-1.
Just Missed: JT Poston
(odds provided by FOX Bet)
Scottie Scheffler +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Jon Rahm +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Patrick Cantlay +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Collin Morikawa +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Jordan Spieth +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Cameron Young +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Viktor Hovland +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Justin Thomas +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Sungjae Im +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Xander Schauffele +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Tony Finau +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Max Homa +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Shane Lowry +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Tom Kim +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Sam Burns +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Tyrrell Hatton +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Matt Kuchar +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Russell Henley +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Corey Conners +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
J.T. Poston +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Odds for the complete field at FOX Bet
Past Five Winners at Harbour Town
Are you ready to get in on the golf action? Head over to FOX Bet to place your wagers now!
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