Algeria: Few Surprises in Store As Algeria’s Presidential Election Nears

The campaign is drawing to a close for Algeria’s presidential election this weekend – a poll that incumbent Abdelmadjid Tebboune is widely predicted to win. Experts say the only real unknown is how many voters will turn out.

Tuesday is the final day of campaigning for the vote on Saturday, 7 September, with a media blackout to be imposed from Wednesday.

Most observers expect Tebboune to secure his re-election with a majority of votes in the first of the two rounds of voting.

“The outcome is largely predictable,” Dalia Ghanem, a senior analyst and programme director at the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told RFI.

“As we’ve expected, this election has proceeded without any surprises. In this country, elections tend to be meticulously orchestrated and tightly managed.”

Shortened campaign

“Tebboune has the support of the administration” as the incumbent president, said Hasni Abidi, director of the Centre for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (Cermam) in Geneva.

Tebboune has eased relations with Algeria’s powerful military, Abidi told RFI.

The president is also expected to benefit from a change in the election schedule, which left his rivals with less time to campaign.

Originally scheduled for December, the poll was brought forward because of what he called “the current international situation and the dangers looming over Algeria”.

The country typically avoids holding elections in the summer, when intense heat makes campaigning difficult – but this year’s campaign kicked off in mid-August.

While campaign staff would usually head out into streets and markets to talk to voters, in recent weeks they have tried to meet voters in their homes, said a spokesperson for the Socialist Forces Front (FFS), a centre-left opposition party.

“We had to adapt,” the representative told RFI.

Opponents arrested

The opposition has also complained of intimidation, with dozens of people arrested last month over alleged election fraud and three would-be candidates placed under judicial supervision.

Another opposition leader, Fethi Ghares, was detained last week. He stands accused of “insulting the president” and spreading disinformation online.

A prominent figure on Algeria’s secular left, Ghares was involved in the 2019 Hirak movement, the series of mass protests that led to the ousting of long-time president Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

His party, the Democratic and Social Movement, succeeded the Algerian Communist Party, but was banned in February 2023.

Algerian opposition denounces ‘unfair conditions’ in upcoming election

“It is very difficult to do politics in Algeria, I have often said it,” political scientist Abidi told RFI.

“It is difficult to exist as an opponent. There are arrests; some journalists or even citizens who have published posts on social media can get arrested now, which is new. Algeria had not even known that until now.”

He says a lot of people still fear repercussions and do not speak to journalists, for instance, because they are afraid for their safety.

“People ultimately do not make comments on politics in public, or say things that are a little general,” Abidi said.

But Algeria’s political system itself is evolving, he explains: “It is no longer set around this duality between the armed forces and the political power. Civilians are trying to have a role.”

Question of turnout

With members of the opposition calling for a boycott, however, some voters are refusing to participate.

Karim, who lives in Algiers, told RFI’s correspondent why he would not be casting his ballot this weekend: “It is just theatre. This is an authoritarian regime that does not respect the rules of democracy. Every Algerian knows the outcome of this election in advance.”

“Participation is the only element at stake,” agreed Abidi. “It seems like abstentionism has become the first party in Algeria.”

Algerian election campaign marked by social pledges and claims of unfair play

The last presidential election of 2019 was widely boycotted, resulting in low turnout that undermined the legitimacy of Tebboune’s victory.

The president and his supporters are hoping to up participation this time round – something that analyst Ghanem suggests could be on the cards.

“It’s worth noting that the president is enjoying a surge in popularity, exceeding even his approval ratings when he was elected in 2019,” she told RFI.

“The public appears to be responding positively to his leadership and policy decisions. The crucial question now is whether this level of support will endure, and what the implications of another five years under Tebboune’s leadership will be for Algeria’s future.”