MLB odds: How to bet Home Run Derby, best bets plus long shot

Will Pete Alonso make it three Home Run Derby titles in a row? Or will another slugger send more baseballs over the fence at Dodger Stadium on Monday?

New York Mets first baseman Alonso won the HRD in 2019 and 2021 (the All-Star Game was canceled in 2020 due to the pandemic). But this year’s competition is tough.

Here’s everything you need to know about betting on the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game, including the odds and a pick from FOX Bet‘s betting expert. For more baseball content, check out the MLB page at FOX Sports.

The Home Run Derby is MLB’s equivalent of the NBA’s Slam Dunk Contest – a competition held the day prior to the All-Star Game that is as popular, if not more so, than the game itself.

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who leads the majors with 31 homers, and Angles pitcher/hitter Shohei Ohtani, who has 19 homers and is the new favorite to win AL MVP, won’t participate, but the event will be a must-see event for baseball fans (and gamblers).

A slugger generating interest is Rodriguez, a rookie outfielder for the Mariners. Two rookies have won the HRD outright – Judge in 2017 and Alonso in 2019. The Mariners are hot right now, can Rodriguez keep the magic going?

Or does the aging veteran in Pujols catch your eye? Big Albert, 42, is in his second stint with the Cardinals after spending 10 seasons in Los Angeles with the Angels (2012-21) and Dodgers (2021).

Pujols has 685 career home runs, fifth-most all-time and the leader among active players.

Home Run Derby odds at FOX Bet*

Pete Alonso, Mets: +235 (bet $10 to win $33.50 total)
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Juan Soto, Nationals: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Corey Seager, Rangers: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Jose Ramirez, Guardians: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Albert Pujols, Cardinals: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)

*=odds as of 7/17/2022

Here are the contestants’ statistics *:

Alonso: .268 batting average, 24 home runs, 74 RBIs, .527 slugging percentage

Schwarber: .211, 28, 57, .505

Soto: .247, 19, 42, .490

Acuna: .270, 8, 22, .420

Rodriguez: .275, 16, 50, .479

Seager: .246, 22, 51, .475

Ramirez: .285, 17, 70, .558

Pujols: .214, 6, 20, .379

*=entering Saturday’s play; players seeded by 2022 home run total

FOX Bet associate trader Steven Hemke likes Schwarber’s chances of ending Alonso’s run of Home Run Derby crowns. Schwarber (the top seed, based on home runs this season) has streaky power as he hit 16 home runs in a span of 18 games in June 2021 for the Washington Nationals.

Schwarber, whose 28 homers is the most among Derby participants, is seeded first and will face eighth-seeded Pujols in the first round.

“Schwarber has the perfect left-handed swing to win this contest,” Hemke said. “He not only can hit bombs over 450 feet to thrill the crowd, but he has such a powerful, easy swing that should set him up well late into the contest when others may fatigue.”

If you are looking for a long shot, Hemke said he wouldn’t be surprised if Seager pulls off a stunner. Seager opens the competition against Rodriguez, the only rookie taking part in the All-Star Game.

“Good price on Seager here. The former Dodger returning to his home park should give him some extra incentive to perform well,” Hemke said. “I also think the talented youngster he faces in Round 1 (Rodriguez) may feel the nerves, allowing Seager to advance at a price.”

Hemke’s pick for the player whose swing will be the most talked about is Acuna Jr.

“I feel we may be in store for a 500-plus foot shot from the youngster, and he has the power to do it,” Hemke said.

PICK: Kyle Schwarber (+300 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $40 total) to win Home Run Derby

LONGER SHOT PICK: Corey Seager (+900 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $100 total) to win Home Run Derby

EXOTIC PICK: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+225 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $32.50 total) to hit longest home run 

ODDS TO WIN FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS

(Seedings based on 2022 home run totals)

Schwarber (1 seed) vs. Pujols (8)

Schwarber (-278, bet $10 to win $13.60 total) | Pujols (+135, bet $10 to win $23.50 total) 

Alonso (2) vs. Acuna (7)

Alonso (-182, bet $10 to win $15.49 total) | Acuna (+155, bet $10 to win $25.50 total)

Seager (3) vs. Rodriguez (6)

Rodriguez (-120, bet $10 to win $18.33 total) | Seager (+100, bet $10 to win $20 total)

Soto (4) vs. Ramirez (5)

Soto (-175, bet $10 to win $15.71 total) | Ramirez (+145, bet $10 to win $24.50 total)

LONGEST HOME RUN

Acuna +225 (bet $10 to win $32.50)
Schwarber +315 (bet $10 to win $41.50)
Alonso +550 (bet $10 to win $65)
Soto +600 (bet $10 to win $70)
Rodriguez +850 (bet $10 to win $95)
Seager +900 (bet $10 to win $100)
Pujols +1300 (bet $10 to win $140)
Ramirez +1500 (bet $10 to win $160)

Do you like a particular slugger’s chance of winning the Home Run Derby? To place your bets on Home Run Derby and other sporting events, head on over to FOX Bet.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!

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