AP NCAA women’s basketball poll reaction: Biggest early-season game for every Top 25 team
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Charlie Creme, ESPN.comOct 15, 2024, 12:14 PM ET
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- Charlie Creme projects the women’s NCAA tournament bracket for ESPN.com.
Women’s basketball provides something few other sports can: year-round entertainment.
The WNBA season still has a few days left, but with Tuesday’s release of the AP Top 25 preseason poll, the unofficial start to the 2024-25 college season is already here.
When an undefeated national champion returns all but one key contributor and adds one of the top recruits in the country, it’s bound to be the preseason No. 1 — and that is exactly where South Carolina starts out. Kamilla Cardoso is gone, but Raven Johnson, Te-Hina Paopao, Tessa Johnson, MiLaysia Fulwiley and Chloe Kitts, among others, return, and along with freshman Joyce Edwards make the Gamecocks the favorite again.
The star power at UConn with Paige Bueckers and at USC with JuJu Watkins make the Huskies and Trojans formidable challengers. USC will be trying to win its first title since 1984 — as a member of the Big Ten. That’s a headliner on a season of change, where conference realignment will make the landscape look very different.
Looking for Iowa or Stanford? Neither was in the preseason Top 25. With Caitlin Clark and Lisa Bluder no longer with the Hawkeyes, and Tara VanDerveer and Cameron Brink gone from the Cardinal, those programs have just lost too much.
With schedules such an important factor in NCAA tournament selection and seeding, we take a look at the Top 25 through the prism of everyone’s schedule: What is the key game to look for in the first two months?
All times Eastern
1. South Carolina Gamecocks
2023-24 record: 38-0
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., TNT (Las Vegas, Hall of Fame series)
Biggest early-season game: Dec. 5 vs. Duke, 9 p.m., ESPN
The Gamecocks host UConn in what might be the marquee nonconference game of the entire season, but that game is in February. In the first two months, South Carolina will face NC State, UCLA, Iowa State, Duke and TCU. While the second game of the season against the Wolfpack is a Final Four rematch, the ACC/SEC Challenge puts Duke in Columbia. Kara Lawson has built her program around defense and recruits (rather than transfers), much in the same way Dawn Staley grew the Gamecocks into a national power.
2. UConn Huskies
2023-24 Record: 33-6
Season opener: Nov. 7 vs. Boston University, 7 p.m., SNY
Biggest early-season game: Dec. 21 vs. USC, 8 p.m., FOX
Paige Bueckers vs. JuJu Watkins is our early Christmas present. The two leading candidates for National Player of the Year meet for a second time after Bueckers’ Huskies got the better of Watkins’ Trojans in the Elite Eight. By this point, UConn will have already played North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame and Iowa State. If it wins them all, this meeting with USC may determine who the No. 1 team in the country is heading into the new year should South Carolina stumble.
3. USC Trojans
2023-24 Record: 29-6
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Ole Miss, 9 a.m., ESPN (Paris)
Biggest early-season game: Nov. 23 vs. Notre Dame, 1 p.m., NBC
A week before the two schools square off in football in Los Angeles, they do the same in basketball. Both the Trojans and the Irish should be in the mix for a No. 1 seed come March and the winner of this game takes a massive advantage in that quest. One month before Watkins gets to go head-to-head with Bueckers, she faces Hannah Hidalgo, the second-best freshman to Watkins a year ago.
4. Texas Longhorns
2023-24 Record: 33-5
Season opener: Nov. 10 vs. Southeast Missouri State, 3 p.m.
Biggest early-season game: Dec. 22 vs. South Dakota State, 3 p.m.
Right before Christmas, this could be a tricky game for Texas. The Jackrabbits are one of the mid-majors to watch once again and could make a run at the top 25 themselves. Always well-prepared under coach Aaron Johnston, South Dakota State is also talented with Brooklyn Meyer and Paige Meyer leading the way. It’s a game in which Texas bigs Aaliyah Moore and Taylor Jones may have to shine to keep the Longhorns away from an upset alert.
5. UCLA Bruins
2023-24 Record: 27-7
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Louisville, 11:30 a.m., ESPN2 (Paris)
Biggest early-season game: Nov. 4 vs. Louisville, 11:30 a.m., ESPN2 (Paris)
Cori Close has amassed a plethora of talent with the addition of transfers Charlisse Leger-Walker, Janiah Barker and Timea Gardiner to go with Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice. The Bruins will get an immediate test on how that chemistry is working against the Cardinals in the game that kicks off the entire season in Paris. A year ago, this trip to France launched South Carolina when the Gamecocks blew out Notre Dame. Could it do the same for UCLA?
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2023-24 Record: 28-7
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Mercyhurst, 5 p.m., ACC Network
Biggest early-season game: Dec. 5 vs. Texas, 7 p.m., ESPN
Both the Irish and Longhorns saw freshmen become stars a season ago with their team leaders out with injury. Rori Harmon is back for Texas to team up with Madison Booker, and Niele Ivey can now pair Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles, returning from a knee injury. This is a dream backcourt matchup that could define which duo is meshing the best. This looks to be the best Irish team under Ivey. This game and one a week later against UConn, also in South Bend, should tell us just how good.
7. LSU Tigers
2023-24 Record: 31-6
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Eastern Kentucky, 8:00 p.m., SEC Network+
Most important early-season game: Dec. 5 vs. Stanford
The Tigers might instead draw NC State in their second game of the Baha Mar Hoops Pink Flamingo Championship during Thanksgiving week in the Bahamas. But if LSU meets Stanford, the Cardinal could represent the Tigers’ toughest opponent in what is another weak nonconference schedule. Stanford is expected to have a down year after losing Cameron Brink, Kiki Iriafen, Hannah Jump and legendary coach Tara VanDerveer. Also notable: Should LSU meet Stanford instead of NC State, the Tigers won’t face a ranked opponent until a Jan. 23 trip to South Carolina.
8. Iowa State Cyclones
2023-24 Record: 21-12
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Chicago State, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 28 vs. South Carolina in Fort Myers, Florida
The Gamecocks are an early measuring stick for many teams and are Iowa State’s first test of any kind at the Fort Myers Tip-Off Thanksgiving weekend. This will be the first indication of what the sophomore follow-up for Audi Crook will look like. Emily Ryan, back for her fifth year and the Cyclones all-time assist leader, will also be challenged by a deep and experienced Gamecocks backcourt.
9. NC State Wolfpack
2023-24 Record: 31-7
Season opener: Nov. 5 vs. ETSU, 7:00 p.m., ACC Network
Most important early-season game: Nov. 10 vs. South Carolina in Charlotte, North Carolina
The Wolfpack will be adjusting to life without River Baldwin and Mimi Collins, and there’s nothing like seeing how prepared your young frontcourt players are than going up against one of the country’s most dominant rebounding teams. Even with Baldwin and Collins, NC State was pushed around on the glass by South Carolina in last year’s Final Four in a 19-point loss. If 6-foot-5 freshman Lorena Awou and 6-4 Boston University transfer Caitlin Weimar are ready to support the guard play of Aziaha James, Saniya Rivers and Zoe Brooks, this result may be different.
10. Oklahoma Sooners
2023-24 Record: 23-10
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Southern, 6:00 p.m., SEC Network+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 4 vs. Southern
In one of the biggest upsets of the entire 2023-24 season, the Jaguars rolled into Norman and beat Oklahoma by nine. Many of those same Sooners, who ultimately went on to win a second consecutive Big 12 title, are back. This game will showcase how long their memories are. Adding Oregon State transfer 6-4 Raegan Beers, gives Oklahoma another dimension and this will be her debut as a Sooner.
11. Duke Blue Devils
2023-24 Record: 22-12
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Radford, 11:00 a.m., ACCNX
Most important early-season game: Nov. 10 at Maryland
Expect this to be the best Duke team Kara Lawson has coached. The first time it gets tested is the third game of the season against a remade Maryland club. A national television audience will get its initial look at 6-2 freshman Toby Fournier, who has already achieved some viral fame with her ability to dunk. It will be interesting to see how the mixture of veterans like Reigan Richardson and Tania Mair, plus the youth of sophomores Riley Nelson and ACC Sixth Player of the Year Oluchi Okananwa, plus Fournier progresses from this game against the Terps to the early-December clash at South Carolina.
12. Baylor Bears
2023-24 Record: 26-8
Season opener: Nov. 7 vs. Incarnate Word, 8:00 p.m., ESPN+
Most important early-season game: Dec. 8 vs. UNLV
Baylor may get the opportunity to meet Indiana and North Carolina in the Battle for Atlantis at the end of November, but otherwise the Lady Rebels, the three-time defending Mountain West champions and favorites to win it again, represent the Bears’ most difficult nonconference game. Apart from a trip to Oregon in the first week of the season, Baylor doesn’t play a true road game until opening Big 12 play at Kansas on December 21st.
13. Kansas State Wildcats
2023-24 Record: 26-8
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Green Bay, 12:00 p.m., ESPN+
Most important early-season game: vs. Middle Tennessee in St. Joseph, Missouri
It’s not often 6-6 Ayoka Lee must look up at an opponent, but when the Wildcats host the Blue Raiders, the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year will be matched up with 6-7 Anastasiia Boldyreva, who was Conference USA’s defensive player of the year in 2024 and was fifth in the nation in blocks per game. A backcourt battle between all-league players Serena Sundell of Kansas State and Middle Tennessee’s Jaylnn Gregory is also intriguing.
14. Ohio State Buckeyes
2023-24 Record: 26-6
Season opener: Nov. 5 vs. Cleveland State, 6:00 p.m., BTN+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 17 at Belmont
If Ohio State is to suffer a loss against a soft nonconference schedule, this could be it. Coach Kevin McGuff will be incorporating eight new players around Cotie McMahon and Taylor Thierry, and this is the second game of the season. Belmont’s best players are veterans. The Buckeyes won this matchup by 29 points last season in Columbus, but this time, the game is in Nashville.
15. North Carolina Tar Heels
2023-24 Record: 20-13
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Charleston Southern, 11:00 a.m., ACCNX
Most important early-season game: Nov. 15 vs. UConn in Greensboro, North Carolina
With plenty of big-game opportunities in the ACC, the Tar Heels don’t need this game to have a successful season, but it would set themselves up well to be a top-16 team with an upset. Lexi Donarski is a high-level defender who could cause Bueckers some problems, and North Carolina has some size that could be troublesome for the Huskies’ relatively young frontcourt this early in the season.
16. West Virginia Mountaineers
2023-24 Record: 25-8
Season opener: Nov. 5 vs. Towson, 7:00 p.m., ESPN+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas A&M
The Aggies represent the only likely NCAA tournament at-large candidate on West Virginia’s nonconference schedule. If the Mountaineers win this one, there is a good chance for them to be undefeated heading into Big 12 play, which begins earlier this season, Dec. 21 at Colorado. JJ Quinerly is one of the most underrated players in the country and will be the focal point of West Virginia’s offense.
17. Louisville Cardinals
2023-24 Record: 24-10
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. UCLA, 2:30 p.m., ESPN (Paris, Aflac Oui-Play game)
Most important early-season game: Dec. 4 vs. Oklahoma
After playing UCLA overseas and taking trips to Kentucky and Colorado, the Cardinals draw the Sooners at home in the SEC/ACC Challenge. Both teams figure to be in the mix to host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games at a top-four seed, so this game could serve as a deciding factor. The inside battle of Olivia Cochran vs. Beers will certainly help determine the outcome. Oklahoma’s second-leading scorer, Peyton Verhulst, made the ACC All-Freshman team in 2022, but left for Norman midway through the following season.
18. Maryland Terrapins
2023-24 Record: 19-14
Season opener: Nov. 4 at UMBC, 7:00 p.m., ESPN+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 10 vs. Duke
With 10 new faces in the program, it may be a good idea that Brenda Frese has elected to play an easier nonconference schedule than usual. A visit from the Blue Devils is the clear highlight. An impressive group of transfers — Saylor Poffenbarger (Arkansas), Mir McLean (Virginia Cavaliers), Christina Dalce (Villanova), Kaylene Smikle (Rutgers), Amari DeBerry (UConn) and Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Sarah Te-Biasu (VCU) — will get the first true test of how they are meshing four games into the season.
19. Florida State Seminoles
2023-24 Record: 23-11
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. North Florida, 11:00 a.m., ACCNX
Most important early-season game: Dec. 4 at Tennessee
After last year’s 92-91 thriller in Tallahassee, this matchup deserves another look. The basketball die-hards in Knoxville also deserve the opportunity to see a talent like Ta’Niya Latson, who has averaged 21.4 points per game over her first two seasons. If the Seminoles want a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament, this is a game they likely need to win. This would also be a résumé-builder for a Lady Vols team that projects to be on the tournament bubble.
20. Ole Miss Rebels
2023-24 Record: 24-9
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. USC, 12:00 p.m., ESPN (Paris, France, Aflac Oui-Play game)
Most important early-season game: Nov. 4 vs. USC
Coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin might start two graduate students, two seniors and a junior. The Rebels should be ready to start the season. The clash with USC in the opener in Paris might be their biggest chance to score an impact win. 6-foot Kennedy Todd Williams, 6-2 Madison Scott and 6-2 Kharyssa Richardson have the length that could cause Watkins some problems and Ole Miss will be happy to have point guard KK Deans back after a knee injury ended her 2023-24 season early.
21. Creighton Bluejays
2023-24 Record: 26-6
Season opener: Nov. 8 vs. South Dakota State, 7:00 p.m., Summit League Network
Most important early-season game: Nov. 14 at Kansas State
This is the third game of a difficult four-game stretch for the Bluejays — at South Dakota State, Drake at home, at Kansas State and Nebraska at home. A big part of Creighton’s NCAA tournament résumé will be set before Thanksgiving. The tallest upperclassmen the Bluejays have is 6-2, so how they can contend with 6-6 Ayoka Lee will be something to watch.
22. Kentucky Wildcats
2023-24 Record: 12-20
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. USC Upstate, 5:00 p.m., SEC Network+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 16 vs. Louisville
This might be the true beginning of the Kenny Brooks era at Kentucky. All the changes in the program and with the roster will get its first true test against the in-state rivals. It helps that this is a home game and against a program in which Brooks and his star Georgia Amoore are familiar with, having played against the Cardinals in the ACC while at Virginia Tech. Games against Illinois and North Carolina will follow, but the schedule is manageable as Brooks and his new-look Wildcats get established.
23. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2023-24 Record: 23-12
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Omaha, 11:00 p.m., BTN+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 22 at Creighton
Creighton will have the same issue tangling with Nebraska’s 6-2 Alexis Markowski, although it has had success the past two years with consecutive wins over the Cornhuskers. With the Bluejays being the only ranked team on Nebraska’s schedule prior to Big Ten play, the Huskers need to end that slide to stay ranked themselves. This will also be an immediate homecoming for top-30 recruit point guard Britt Prince, who is from Omaha, and is expected to have early impact for Nebraska.
24. Alabama Crimson Tide
2023-24 Record: 24-10
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. New Orleans, 6:00 p.m., SEC+
Most important early-season game: Dec. 5 at California
Cal vs. Alabama as part of the SEC/ACC Challenge sounds strange and it probably will be for a few years, but this represents the Crimson Tide’s most difficult nonconference game until they possibly meet Michigan State in the West Palm Beach Classic just before Christmas. With Sarah Ashlee Barker and Aaliyah Nye leading the way, this is a veteran team, looking to build on last March’s second-round NCAA tournament appearance.
25. Indiana Hoosiers
2023-24 Record: 26-6
Season opener: Nov. 4 vs. Brown, 7:00 p.m., BTN+
Most important early-season game: Nov. 17 vs. Stanford
Last November, the Hoosiers played Stanford, Princeton and Tennessee to prep for Big Ten play. Of course, Teri Moren also had Mackenzie Holmes 12 months ago. Holmes, one of the best players in program history is gone and the nonconference slate isn’t as ambitious. The Cardinal are still on the schedule for returning veterans Sydney Parrish, Chloe Moore-McNeil and Yarden Garzon, but this isn’t the same Stanford. It does present Indiana its toughest test before a trip to the Battle 4 Atlantis where Baylor and North Carolina are potential later round opponents.