CFP quarterfinal first look: X factors, key players and how each team can win
Beginning with snow in South Bend, Indiana, the College Football Playoff made its on-campus debut this weekend. The scenes did not disappoint.
Up next is the quarterfinal round, which features four games played at traditional postseason sites: the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl. Much like the first round, the quarterfinals will span two days. No. 3 Boise State kicks things off and will make its first CFP appearance — albeit in a very familiar game, the Fiesta Bowl, where 18 years ago much of the country learned about the Broncos in their unforgettable win against Oklahoma. They’ll face No. 6 Penn State.
The New Year’s Day slate begins with perhaps the most surprising CFP entrant: Arizona State, which was picked to finish last in the 16-team Big 12 but won the league to earn the No. 4 seed. Coach Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils will be in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl for the first time since 1970 and will face No. 5 Texas.
Up next will be the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential, in which No. 1 seed Oregon, the nation’s only undefeated team, will face No. 8 Ohio State in a highly anticipated rematch from the regular season. An incredible day finishes up in New Orleans, where No. 2 seed Georgia, the only team in the CFP field to win a national championship in the past four seasons, will face No. 7 Notre Dame at the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Eight teams are left in the hunt for a national championship after a season of unpredictability. Here’s a look at the four quarterfinal matchups and what to expect Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. — Adam Rittenberg
Jump to:
Penn State vs. Boise State
Texas vs. Arizona State
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State
When: Dec. 31, 7:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2)
What we learned in Round 1: Perhaps we learned Penn State has an elite defense, but that seemed pretty clear before the 38-10 win over SMU in which the D picked off Kevin Jennings three times in the first half, returning two for touchdowns. Moreover, those interceptions were as much a statement about SMU’s incompetence on the execution of those plays as Penn State’s brilliance. Perhaps we learned that, once again, the 106,000-plus fans in Happy Valley can create havoc for opposing teams, but that won’t be an advantage through the rest of the playoff for Penn State. Perhaps we learned coach James Franklin can win a big one. He had been just 5-21 vs. top-12 teams at Penn State entering this playoff. But while SMU might have earned its No. 11 ranking, the talent disparity on the field clearly favored Penn State, and had the Mustangs not imploded of their own accord so early, there might have been real hand-wringing over Franklin’s perplexing fourth-down call from his own 20-yard line up 14-0 or the offense’s inability to break big plays against SMU until the score was entirely lopsided.
In other words, Penn State’s win was encouraging because things mostly went right, and the Nittany Lions did what they were supposed to do. But beyond that, an easy victory against an SMU team that helped by beating itself didn’t exactly prove that this year’s Penn State squad is finally capable of getting over the hump against a genuinely top-tier opponent. The really good news is, the Nittany Lions are going to get at least one more chance to do just that.
X factor: QB Drew Allar. Allar and the Penn State passing game have been a mixed bag over the past two years. The top-line numbers speak for themselves. Allar wins, he doesn’t turn the ball over and he has moved the ball consistently against lesser competition. But the downfield threat has never quite materialized for Allar, even as the offense’s explosiveness has improved with Andy Kotelnicki calling plays in 2024. Part of that comes from the lack of a true speed demon on the outside, and part of it comes from a game plan built around two talented tailbacks. But there will come a time in these playoffs — and quite possibly against Boise State — when Allar needs to change the dynamic, force a defense to respect the vertical threat and win some battles downfield.
How Penn State wins: It’s unlikely Penn State can completely run back the blueprint for beating SMU, as it’s not often a defense is gifted so many big plays by the opposing quarterback, but the basic framework for a win should look a good bit like what the Nittany Lions did in Round 1. It’s no secret Boise State’s magic is created by tailback Ashton Jeanty, so if Penn State can force the game into Maddux Madsen’s hands instead, there’s reason to think it can cash in on some QB mistakes, just as it did against SMU. Of course, that’s easier said than done. Jeanty has faced his share of stacked boxes this season, so not only does Penn State need to game-plan to stop Jeanty on defense, but Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton & Co. have to actually bring down the Heisman Trophy runner-up before he can escape into space. — David Hale
Boise State Broncos (12-1)
Key player: RB Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has turned in one of the best seasons college football has ever seen from a running back, rushing for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, to finish second in the Heisman voting. He needs 132 yards to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record, which has stood since 1988 (when bowl stats did not count toward official stats). Jeanty can do it all: get tough yards, break long ones, catch passes. And he has done it as the focal point from opposing defenses in a way few players ever are.
X factor: QB Maddux Madsen. There isn’t really a question of what the Broncos will get from Jeanty. He’s going to deliver when the chances are there, and probably when they aren’t. In the Mountain West, he was dominant enough to minimize the importance of the passing game. That won’t be the case in this game. The Broncos will need complementary football and Madsen to rise to the occasion. In the regular season, Madsen did an excellent job protecting the football — he threw 29 touchdowns to just three interceptions — and that has to be the case against Penn State. The Nittany Lions terrorized SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, and SMU never stood a chance with his poor performance.
How Boise State wins: When the Broncos lost by 3 points at Oregon in September, they went toe-to-toe with the Ducks from start to finish. That performance earned them a lot of credibility with the selection committee and is perhaps the blueprint for how to advance. The key part here is not falling behind early. They never trailed by more than a score against Oregon, and that allowed Jeanty to stay as involved as possible. He’s going to see loaded boxes, as usual, but the opposing talent level is much higher than anything the Broncos have seen since Oregon. If Boise State can hang on to the ball and avoid third-and-long, it will have a puncher’s chance. — Kyle Bonagura
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State
When: Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
Texas Longhorns (12-2)
What we learned in Round 1: Texas can morph into whatever form necessary to advance. Quinn Ewers started 8-for-8, but he cooled off after a ball bounced off DeAndre Moore Jr.’s hands and turned into an interception. But the running game took over Saturday for the Longhorns. After running for a total of 60 yards in two losses to Georgia this year, the Longhorns had two 100-yard rushers against Clemson, just the fourth pair of running backs to top the century mark in the playoff. Jaydon Blue, who had 38- and 77-yard touchdown runs — the second the Longhorns’ longest run of the season — added some explosiveness to an offense that has been methodical all season. This Texas team has dimensions where it can shift gears.
X factor: Texas tight end Gunnar Helm is a reliable security blanket for Ewers and the Longhorns, catching a touchdown pass with 33 seconds left in the first half, and three of his other five catches went for first downs, all coming on first down. The threat of Helm on early downs over the middle softens up looks for the rest of the offense. The 6-5, 250-pound senior is now first in Longhorns history in catches by a tight end and second in yards and touchdowns by a tight end in a season.
How Texas wins: Run the ball and shut down Cam Skattebo. The Texas pass defense was gashed by Clemson at times, giving up three passing TDs after surrendering only four all season, but without injured wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, the Sun Devils might not have enough weapons to keep spreading out the nation’s best pass defense. If Texas can contain Skattebo (in the passing game as well as the ground) and feed its own running backs behind a strong offensive line, the Longhorns can stifle the Sun Devils and milk the clock while making them play from behind. — Dave Wilson
Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2)
Key player: RB Cam Skattebo. What is not to love about the way Skattebo plays? His emergence became one of the best storylines of the season, as he finished fifth in the Heisman voting. He rushed for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding 506 yards and three touchdowns receiving — the only player in the country with 1,000-plus yards rushing and 400-plus yards receiving (even with one missed game). As if that weren’t impressive enough, the last player to hit those marks was Christian McCaffrey in 2015. Skattebo got better as the season progressed — and his performance in the Big 12 championship game speaks to that. He was named Most Outstanding Player of the game after scoring three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving), with 208 yards of total offense.
X factor: DB Xavion Alford. It is hard to call one of the best defensive players in the Big 12 an X factor, but so much of the focus on the Sun Devils has been on their offense that Alford deserves some of the spotlight — and he is likely to have an opportunity to come up big. An All-Big 12 first-team selection, Alford has been the model of consistency and an ironman of sorts. He played the fourth-most snaps in coverage in the Big 12 this season (424, 33rd among all FBS players) and allowed just seven receptions, the third fewest in FBS (minimum 300 coverage snaps). Teams have learned to not throw his way — he has been targeted just 17 times this season. As a result, he has allowed only 76 yards in coverage, fourth lowest among FBS players.
How Arizona State wins: Texas presents the biggest, most physical challenge up front that Arizona State has faced. The Longhorns completely owned Clemson at the line of scrimmage in their first-round game, so to defeat them, Arizona State will have to match or beat that physicality — and force Ewers into making mistakes. We all know what Skattebo can do, but Texas ranks as one of the best defenses in the country — so keeping that group off-balance is going to be key. Sam Leavitt has shown incredible poise as the starting quarterback, but the offensive line is going to have to make sure to keep Texas at bay so he does not get rattled. — Andrea Adelson
Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
When: Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2)
What we learned in Round 1: Despite falling to Michigan, Ohio State is plenty capable of winning the national championship. The Buckeyes bounced back in a big way, throttling one of the SEC’s top teams all season in Tennessee. Ohio State jumped to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. Wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka got open at will, and quarterback Will Howard put the ball on the money. Defensively, linebacker Cody Simon set a physical tone, cracking Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s helmet on the opening drive with a devastating hit. It’s hard to see anyone in the playoff defeating this version of the Buckeyes.
X factor: The Volunteers simply couldn’t cover Smith, who ignited the Ohio State scoring barrage with a 37-yard scoring grab on the opening possession. Ohio State curiously gave Smith only two targets in the Michigan loss, with both coming in the third quarter, resulting in just one catch for 3 yards. This time around, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s game plan clearly was to get the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Wide Receiver of the Year involved early and often. The Buckeyes have capable veteran playmakers (Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins), but Ohio State’s offense is at its most dangerous when Smith is touching the ball.
How Ohio State wins: In their first meeting, the Buckeyes allowed Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel to operate with a clean pocket (no sacks, only two QB hurries). The Heisman Trophy finalist made them play with 341 passing yards, highlighted by several completions downfield and two touchdowns on the way to the 32-31 victory. As the Tennessee game illustrated, Ohio State has the pass rushers — notably Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau — to overwhelm the opposing quarterback. Getting to Gabriel in the rematch will be paramount for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Oregon Ducks (13-0)
Key player: QB Dillon Gabriel. This is why Gabriel left Oklahoma and made his way to Eugene, to play in games like this. The fifth-year senior will lead Oregon into the Rose Bowl with a chance to stay undefeated and get one step closer to his ultimate goal of winning a national championship. Only Shedeur Sanders had a better completion percentage than Gabriel this season, an impressive feat when you consider this is his first year in the Ducks’ offense. Gabriel fit in seamlessly into offensive coordinator Will Stein’s unit and has produced his best games when Oregon has needed him the most — 341 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State and 283 yards and four touchdowns in the Big Ten title game against Penn State. For Oregon to advance, Gabriel will need to not just replicate those kinds of performances, but likely dig deeper for more.
X factor: DE Jordan Burch. Oregon’s defense hasn’t lacked for much given its depth and talent, but Burch has been a force. Despite missing four games with an injury, he has been able to tally 8.5 sacks (20th in the country), including a 2.5-sack outing against Washington in the regular-season finale. Having an extended rest period between the Big Ten title game and the Rose Bowl is a boon for a player like Burch, who could single-handedly tilt the game in the Ducks’ favor by wreaking havoc in the opposing team’s backfield.
How Oregon wins: The Ducks have the benefit (or the curse, depending on how you look at it) no other team in the quarterfinals has: They’ve already beaten their opponent once. Against the Buckeyes in October, Oregon fought fire with fire, outgaining, outmatching and ultimately outscoring Ohio State by a single point in Eugene, thanks to a handful of explosive plays, fewer penalties and winning the turnover battle (2-0). The margin between these teams is already slim, and at a neutral site, Oregon will have to be more explosive, more disciplined and simply better — especially on defense, where it allowed 467 total yards — to be able to beat a tough opponent twice. The way the playoff bracket shook out is not how the No. 1 seed Ducks would have likely preferred, but what we get as a result is a rematch that could provide us with an all-time classic between arguably the two best teams in the country this year. It’s only fitting that the setting will be the Rose Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia
When: Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1)
What we learned in Round 1: Notre Dame has a championship-level defense with stars at all three levels. Safety Xavier Watts won the Bronko Nagurski Award in 2023, but he’s been even better this season and showed why against Indiana with 10 tackles and an interception. Jaiden Ausberry led a playmaking group of linebackers and Rylie Mills created havoc up front, as Notre Dame flexed on third down (7 of 13 conversions). Notre Dame’s offense isn’t always the most fluid unit, but with so many running options, chunk plays are always possible, and Jeremiyah Love can deliver them, as he showed with a 98-yard touchdown, the longest play in CFP history.
X factor: WR Jordan Faison, a standout lacrosse player thrust into action at wide receiver in 2023 because of attrition, has become a sneaky good target for quarterback Riley Leonard. Despite missing three early-season games with a sprained ankle, Faison has made multiple catches in every contest he has appeared in, and he had a career-high seven receptions for 89 yards against Indiana. “He’s a playmaker, man,” coach Marcus Freeman said. The sophomore also has a knack for shining in the postseason, as he earned Sun Bowl MVP honors last year with 115 receiving yards and a touchdown against Oregon State. Notre Dame can’t beat Georgia strictly with its run game, and it will need wideouts such as Faison to make notable contributions.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish must harass Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, likely filling in for injured starter Carson Beck, just as they did Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke on Friday. Notre Dame’s defense, which has carried the team much of the season, recorded 10 tackles for loss and three sacks against Indiana and rarely let the Hoosiers operate on schedule. The Irish also need to replicate the offensive balance they showed against Indiana while being a bit more consistent on the ground. Remove Love’s 98-yard touchdown, and Notre Dame had 95 net rushing yards on 34 carries. Notre Dame also must play a cleaner game on special teams after having a field goal attempt blocked and an onside kick recovered by Indiana late in the game. — Rittenberg
Georgia Bulldogs (11-2)
Key player: QB Gunner Stockton. With Bulldogs starter Carson Beck probably sidelined for the CFP because of an elbow injury to his throwing arm, they’ll turn to Stockton, who is expected to make his first start in the Sugar Bowl. Stockton completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in Georgia’s 22-19 victory over Texas in the SEC championship game. He came off the bench to rally the Bulldogs back from a 6-3 deficit at the half. The third-year sophomore has completed 78.1% of his attempts for 206 yards in parts of three games in 2024. Stockton is more of a runner than Beck, but he has far less experience. At Rabun County High School, Stockton had 13,652 career passing yards and 177 passing touchdowns to go with 4,372 rushing yards and 77 rushing touchdowns in his four-year career. He set Georgia state high school records for career passing touchdowns, passing yards and rushing touchdowns.
X factor: RB Trevor Etienne. The Florida transfer returned from a nearly monthlong absence because of a rib injury and ran for 94 yards with two scores in the SEC championship game. He ran for 87 yards with three touchdowns in a 30-15 victory over the Longhorns in the regular season. Etienne can become a big safety valve for Stockton because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield — he has 28 receptions for 168 yards. Etienne is also a more-than-capable blocker, which will be important if Notre Dame’s defense decides to dial up the heat on Stockton. The Irish are 39th in run defense in the FBS (133 yards per game), and they held Indiana to only 63 yards in the first round.
How Georgia wins: With Stockton stepping under center, the Bulldogs are going to need their defense to rise up big time. This hasn’t been Georgia’s best defense under coach Kirby Smart; it ranks 21st in scoring defense (20.4 points), 36th against the run (127.8 yards) and 35th in total defense (334.8 yards). The defense has played well in some of Georgia’s biggest games, including wins over Texas and Tennessee. Linebackers Smael Mondon Jr. and Jalon Walker will need to control Notre Dame’s running game, and they’ll need to force the Irish into a couple of turnovers. — Mark Schlabach