How the women’s basketball Olympic final was set and could play out

The U.S. women’s basketball team continues to do what it does best: win. The Americans are now 40 minutes away from making history.

Team USA cruised to an 85-64 win Friday over Australia in the first semifinals of the Paris Games, marking the program’s 60th consecutive Olympic victory.

The Americans will now play for an eighth consecutive, and 10th overall, Olympic gold medal Sunday against France. The French team came through after a close overtime battle against Belgium in the second semifinal. (With the USA men also taking on the hosts in the final Saturday, this will mark the first Olympics where the same countries are playing in the gold medal game for both men’s and women’s basketball.)

The Opals, who have six active WNBA players on their roster and are led by New York Liberty coach Sandy Brondello, will play Belgium, led by Emma Meesseman and Julie Vanloo, Sunday in the bronze medal game.

As we head toward the final event of the Paris Games, ESPN’s Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel break down what went right for Team USA in the semifinal win and what to expect from the upcoming gold medal showdown.

Team USA had easily its best performance yet in the semifinal against Australia

Even as it defeated opponents by double figures and largely looked like the best team in the field, slow starts and in-game inconsistency had been issues for Team USA. Until this semifinal.

From the jump, the U.S. women were aggressive defensively — which fueled their transition game and helped build an early lead. By the end of the first quarter, they already had 14 fast-break points and had forced six Opals turnovers. Following a 25-11 second quarter, the U.S. was restricting Australia to just 33% from the field (compared to its own 53%) and the Opals were down 45-27.

The dominance continued through the third and early fourth quarters, where Team USA built a 30-point lead before Australia’s reserves made things a bit closer in garbage time. At the final buzzer, Team USA’s shooting clip sat at 50% and the Opals’ at 36%. Australia’s 64 points were the fewest allowed by the U.S. women this Olympics, and the 21-point win was the Americans’ second largest — they beat Japan by 26 in the opener. Also of note: It was Team USA’s second straight and third overall win without trailing this Olympics.

If Team USA brings this defensive intensity into the final, and can use it to play in the open floor, it should have no problem taking home gold. — Alexa Philippou

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The Americans shared the ball exceptionally well

What better way to utilize this much talent on a team than having everybody get in on the act? From a passing standpoint, that’s exactly what happened: 11 of the 12 players on Team USA had at least one assist. (Guard Diana Taurasi is the only one who didn’t.)

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 9, 2024

Three of the starting five had five assists each: point guard Chelsea Gray, guard Jackie Young and forward Breanna Stewart. In all, the Americans had 31 assists, and everyone except Taurasi scored. There isn’t a defense in the world that can challenge this team when it moves the ball that well. The U.S. team is able to wear out and frustrate even the best defenders. — Michael Voepel

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Sunday’s gold medal game will be a battle of the defenses

France and the U.S. are two teams that pride themselves on defense. The former paces all countries with 66.6 points allowed and 12.0 steals per game this Olympics, while the latter is fourth with 71.2 points allowed per game and eighth with 8.2 steals per game. Which unit makes its opponent more uncomfortable? Team USA has so much scoring depth and has improved its chemistry over the past few weeks so it feels likely it’ll be able to do enough damage offensively to win, especially with Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young appearing unstoppable through five games. But staying composed, especially when forced to run half-court offense, will remain paramount. — Philippou

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France’s grit will make it a tough opponent in the final

Shooting 29.9% from the field in an Olympic semifinal would seem like a recipe for disaster. Even with top scorers Gabby Williams (9 points in regulation) and Marine Johannes (6 points) struggling, France overcame its offensive woes — as well as a 15-point deficit and a 22-0 run from the Cats on Friday. Les Bleues relied on their defense, forcing 22 turnovers (14 steals) and scoring 30 points off them. It helped, too, that they did well on the offensive glass (19 offensive boards) and registered 25 more shot attempts than Belgium.

France was down by FIFTEEN to Belgium at one point in this women’s basketball semifinal, and they’ve come back to take the lead in front of their home crowd! #ParisOlympics

📺. USA and Peacock pic.twitter.com/jdIPBBjGAn

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 9, 2024

France admittedly should have closed things out in regulation. But Williams stepped up in overtime to score nine of her team’s 15 points and the hosts eked out the win in front of a boisterous home crowd to cap an all-time thriller of a semifinal. Valeriane Ayayi and Iliana Rupert’s combined 32 points also came up clutch. — Philippou

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The Americans just need to stay in the moment for the gold

We have seen this show so many times now, in both the Olympics and the FIBA World Cup. The U.S. women never have a lot of preparation together as a team, and yet their chemistry always comes together. Does it help to have four players from one WNBA team on this Olympic squad? Of course: Wilson, Young, Gray and Kelsey Plum of the two-time defending champion Aces have brought that vibe.

The players’ commitment to USA Basketball turns WNBA rivals into tight-knit teammates for a couple of weeks right in the middle of their league season. Against France on Sunday, the United States will be the “road” team — yet there’s never any worry about the headspace the Americans are in. It’s always positive and confident. They are the best team in the Olympic tournament, by a lot. They just have to play like that for another 40 minutes.

Taurasi, going for her sixth Olympic gold, talked earlier in the tournament about the potential of having to face the home country and how the Americans had to be prepared for that. It doesn’t seem likely that will rattle them, but the crowd will try to be a factor for the French.

France got to the foul line a lot and capitalized on that — going 28-of-32 from the stripe — against Belgium. The pro-French crowd for the final might have some impact on the officiating, so the Americans have to be ready for that, too. — Voepel