In the job seven days, Asia’s newest leader is already standing up to China

When Chinese boats encroached on waters off Indonesia’s Natuna Islands early in Joko Widodo’s presidency, he hauled his ministers there for a cabinet meeting aboard a warship, leaving a written note for the crew: “Defend Indonesia.”

The 1200-kilometre excursion from Jakarta to Indonesia’s northern island chain in 2016 was as symbolic as it was unconventional, an assertion of sovereignty described at the time as Indonesia’s strongest ever jab at China on matters of the South China Sea, which is the conduit for more than a third of global maritime trade. China claims most of it as its own, despite a 2016 United Nations tribunal ruling to the contrary.

Eight years after the ruling and Indonesia’s warship cabinet meeting, Widodo’s successor, Prabowo Subianto, is already dealing with Chinese provocation on the South China Sea. He has been in the job for just one week.

Last Monday, a Chinese coastguard ship started harassing an Indonesian vessel off the Natunas, an area claimed by Indonesia as its exclusive economic zone. It was driven out by Indonesian ships, but it came back for another go on Wednesday and again on Friday.

The Chinese were tailing a ship from Indonesia’s state-owned energy company PT Pertamina as it conducted seismic surveys of the sea bed, according to Bakamla, Indonesia’s maritime security agency. This edge of the South China Sea is rich in resources, and China does not acknowledge Indonesia’s claim.

Indonesia and China are friendly and Prabowo’s mantra on foreign affairs is “one thousand friends too few, one enemy too many” but the South China Sea off the Natuna islands is a point of friction.

Chinese vessels, fishing or otherwise, go into the Indonesian exclusive economic zone occasionally, but it is difficult to know how often because Widodo, having made his point very publicly in 2016, seemed to prefer a more low-key approach as time went on.

But this past week’s incidents have created a stir. Bakamla even released video footage and audio.

A view doing the rounds is that China, given its track record on the South China Sea with Malaysia, Vietnam and particularly the Philippines, is testing Prabowo. After all, the coastguard harassed an Indonesian state-owned vessel on three occasions in the first days of his presidency.

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But the other possibility is that this type of Chinese harassment of Indonesian vessels is more common than we think, and Prabowo, who has been defence minister since 2019 and across these matters, has made a point of calling it out in a very public manner via Bakamla from week one.

A special forces pro, Prabowo is currently with his ministers at a military academy in Central Java for a bonding session requiring everyone to run drills at 4am in camouflage. On Friday, he presided over a military ceremony. Perhaps he is already stepping out from the cuddly grandpa image created for him during the presidential campaign and returning to his more comfortable strongman roots.