Latest Geomagnetic Storm Catches Scientists Off Guard

The Sun is going through an intense time right now. Our host star is experiencing increased activity, with a series of solar eruptions aimed towards Earth that resulted in a rare geomagnetic storm.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center issued a severe geomagnetic storm alert on Monday following a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that emerged last week. The storm reached level G4, meaning it’s severe. The geomagnetic storm triggered bright, colorful auroras last night in different parts of the world, with a chance for more of the celestial lights to take over the skies later tonight.

Space weather forecasters at NOAA had been monitoring at least five CMEs that erupted from the Sun since last week in anticipation that some may be headed towards Earth. “Some seem to have missed Earth, some clipped Earth, and then eventually one of those we were anticipating was much more of a good punch,” Shawn Dahl, service coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center, told Gizmodo.

We’re in the middle of an intense geomagnetic storm! 🌎🧲💥

A series of solar eruptions arriving at Earth are triggering widespread auroras. Here’s what NASA space weather analyst Carina Alden saw last night as she traveled through Michigan and Wisconsin! https://t.co/KG5pvCdyit pic.twitter.com/qrpdkva4Vj

— NASA Sun & Space (@NASASun) August 12, 2024

The Sun is approaching its solar maximum, a period of increased activity during its 11-year cycle that’s characterized by intense solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and massive sunspots. Earlier in May, a G5, or extreme, geomagnetic storm hit Earth as a result of large expulsions of plasma from the Sun’s corona (also known as coronal mass ejections). The G5 storm was the first to hit Earth in more than 20 years, and had some effects on Earth’s power grid.

Although the latest storm wasn’t as intense, space weather forecasters are monitoring for CMEs but acknowledge that these events are difficult to predict. “We never know what’s actually going to be, what the CME is composed of, and what to make of it until it gets just 1 million miles from Earth, where it’s only 15 to 45 minutes away,” Dahl said. “That’s when we can see what the CME is composed of. How strong is it magnetically? What’s the speed of its movement? Is it going to connect with Earth?”

For the latest CME to hit Earth, all that information came together on Sunday night, according to Dahl. That’s when the scientists observing the Sun’s activity were able to predict that a severe solar storm was imminent.

This solar cycle is exceptionally active, with the Sun developing the largest number of sunspots since 2002. CMEs typically erupt from regions on the Sun with increased amounts of magnetic flux associated with sunspots, and so far the Sun has sprouted 299 sunspots during its current solar cycle.

It’s obvious that the Sun isn’t stopping anytime soon. “Bottom line is, we’re going to be under the influence of increased activity all of this year, all of next year, and even in 2026 where we’ll continue to have higher chances this type of activity to continue to happen from time to time over the remainder of this solar cycle maximum that we’re experiencing,” Dahl said.