Men’s Bracketology: UNC is in tourney trouble … again

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 1/3/2025 at 10:30 a.m. ET

Here at Bracketology HQ, we track every result every night, ranking and re-ranking what will eventually comprise the NCAA tournament’s field of 68. With major conference play beginning in earnest this week, our shift to twice weekly updates (every Tuesday and Friday) begins.

Bracket Watch

There’s really no way to spin it. For the second time in three years, North Carolina is in trouble. Not “No. 1 team misses the tournament” trouble, but NCAA tourney trouble just the same. The Tar Heels began this season as a borderdline Top 10 team, second in the ACC, and with the top returnee in the conference in R.J. Davis. We had them as a 2-seed in our preseason Bracketology. But against a big-time schedule already featuring a nation’s-best eight Quad One opponents, UNC has won just two of those games. And it’s not like Carolina is passing the eye test. The two wins — Dayton (Maui) and UCLA (Madison Square Garden) were both two-pointers. On the flip side, the Heels have been outclassed by Auburn (Maui), Alabama (at home), Florida (in Charlotte) and now Louisville (at the KFC Yum! Center — against a team picked ninth in the ACC). North Carolina sneaks into our latest bracket with a spot in the First Four, but even that would be an insult to this program. The good news is the Tar Heels still have 18 league games to right the ship. That’s also the bad news, as the ACC will provide almost as many chances for bad losses as it will significant wins. The Heels will not play another Q1 foe until back-to-back road games against Pitt and Duke at the end of the month — by which time they could be playing for their season.

On the Bubble

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Lexington

Wichita

Wichita

Seattle

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Raleigh

Seattle

Denver

Cleveland

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Lexington

Denver

Milwaukee

Cleveland

EAST (NEWARK)

Milwaukee

Providence

Providence

Raleigh

Conference Breakdown

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