Nurse, 1.1, McDavid, +40, Campbell, .910: Stats line we’d love to see for Edmonton Oilers in 2023-24

Numbers measures players in the NHL, some of the numbers being private, known only to the analytics departments of NHL teams, others public and well known.

All of these numbers speak to the success or failure of each player, which got me thinking about what particular number I’d love to see from each Oilers player in the 2023-24 season, a single number that would significantly define success for that player this year.

For the past 13 years, the Cult of Hockey has measured individual Oilers by their individual contributions to Grade A shots for and against. Through video review, Bruce McCurdy and I go over every single Grade A shot, then determine which players made a major individual contribution on each Grade A shot for, and which players made major individual mistakes on each Grade A shot against.

It’s a process that takes us into the heart of the game, the most important on-ice event, with about 25 per cent of the Grade A shots leading to a goal. In this piece, I’ll be referencing stats you’ve heard of, such as goals, assists, points and NHL official goals plus-minus, but also the Cult of Hockey’s record of contributions to Grade A shots for and mistakes on Grade A shots against.

Connor McDavid, +40 goals plus-minus at even strength. In the past three seasons, McDavid has been +22, +28 and +21 in NHL goals plus-minus strong numbers. If this stat was a true measure of performance — and it’s not — McDavid would have the best plus-minus in the NHL, but his number has been dragged down due to defensive miscues, mainly by his teammate, and by goalie errors. All that said, If McDavid can get a career-high +40 this year,  it will be a solid indication that the team has figured out how to play better slot defence, which is crucial to the success of the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers. Last season the top plus-minus for a forward was Joe Pavelski of Dallas at +42, so +40 is well within McDavid’s reach. I would not be surprised if he reached +50.

Leon Draisaitl, +2 Grade A shots plus-minus at even strength per game. If a centre is doing his job at even strength, he’ll be +1 Grade A shots plus-minus per game (see chart below). If a centre is dominant individually at even strength, he’ll be at +2 per game. In the last two seasons, for example, McDavid has been at +2.25 and +2.36 per game. Draisaitl was at +1.54 last year, +1.76 the year before. These are strong numbers, but Drai is capable of more, especially if he can play stronger slot defence, an area of consistent weakness in his game. If Draisaitl attains +2 Grade A shots per game at even strength, it will indicate he’s getting it right and dominating both on the attack and on defence, which is within his capabilities.

Zach Hyman, 82 games. In his first season with the Oilers, Hyman played 76 games, last year 79 games. He’s an aggressive forechecking winger, but the Oilers need him healthy if they’re going to make a strong run in the playoffs. He was down a quart due to various bumps and bruises last season, and while he’s never going to get through a season unscathed, if he plays 82 games that should indicate he’s generally been healthy and likely ready to bring his “A” game in the playoffs.

Evander Kane, 50 even strength points. Kane fought through two major injuries last year, scoring 24 even strength points in 41 regular season games. If he can put up 50 even strength points this year — which approaches the 57 even strength points Hyman got last year — that will indicate a healthy and productive season for Kane. Last year only 40 NHL forwards got 50 even strength points but if he’s healthy and playing wing with either McDavid or Draisaitl, 50 even strength points should be within Fa Afo’s reach.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 30 goals. Last year RNH potted 37 goals, a career-high, with 28 goals in his next best season. I would not expect him to score ever greater numbers of goals, but if he can get more than 30 this year, he’ll be getting it done for the team.

Warren Foegele, 82 Grade A shots. Foegele is a reliable two-way winger who can be counted on defensively and brings some offence now and then. But it would be nice to see a bit more offence from him. One way he can do that is to focus on charging the net for shots and also getting open more in the slot. Last year he managed to fire off 57 Grade A shots in 67 games. This year it would be fine to see him play all 82 games and get off one grade A shot per game, 82 in total.  That would be an increase from 0.9 per game to 1.0 per game, which should be do-able.

Ryan McLeod, +1.5 Grade A shots per game. McLeod was a solid two-way centre/winger last year, finishing +1.11 Grade A shots per game, making major contributions to 2.04 Grade A shots per game, with mistakes on 0.93 per game. He’s already a solid defensive player, but if he can make that his focus, along with driving hard up the ice and to the net on the attack, there’s room for improvement in his individual game, which will be reflected in his Grade A shots plus-minus. Attaining +1.5 per game would put him in the category of a difference maker in the regular season and a vital piece on a team with Stanley Cup ambitions.

Mattias Janmark, less than 0.4. major mistakes on Grade A shots ES per game. I don’t think the Oilers have had a defensive winger as good as Mattias Janmark since the Fernando Pisani was on the squad. Janmark is an outstanding backchecker and positional player in his own zone, who also has the ability to win puck battles and skate and pass the puck out of his own end. When he got injured in the playoffs, it was a major blow to the Oilers. Last year he made just 0.34 major mistakes on Grade A shots at even strength per game, a small rate of such mistakes for a winger. This year if he can come close to replicating that performance, he’ll be more than earning his minutes.

Dylan Holloway, 12:00 even strength minutes per game. In his rookie season, Holloway played 8:53 even strength per game. If he can get that up to 12 minutes a game, it’ll be a signal that he’s earned the trust of his coaches and is more consistently finding a way to contribute to Edmonton with his solid blend of size, skill and speed.

Derek Ryan, +11 goals plus-minus. Ryan got the job done last season as a smart, effective two-way winger and center. His goals plus-minus was +11 last year. If he can replicate that level of play, and his linemates don’t let him down, he can attain that same +11 this year.

Connor Brown, 20 even strength goals. The most that Connor Brown has ever scored before is 17 even strength goals, but Brown has never played with attackers like McDavid and Draisaitl before. He’s going to get some shifts in the Top 6, which will give him the opportunity to attain a career-best 20 goals at even strength this season. For a comparison, Zach Hyman scored 21 even strength goals in each his first two seasons in Edmonton.

Darnell Nurse, less than 1.2 major mistakes on Grade A shots ES per game. Adam Larsson was the best defender the Oilers have had in the McDavid era, but I’d like to see Nurse step up and take that crown. Larsson was fierce when it came to protecting the slot. So was Kris Russell. Both players did a great job blocking attackers coming into the slot and covering open attackers there as well, blocking them from getting off shots. Nurse tends to wander too much in his own zone and too often fails to cover off the slot. This failing was made worse because of the Oil’s man-to-man defensive system, which asks players to stick with their check wherever they go in the defensive zone. It’s up to the Oil’s coaching staff to come up with a better, simpler system, such as the zone Vegas employed to throttle back the Oilers in the playoffs. And it’s up to Nurse to make fewer mistakes on even strength Grade A shots per game, to post a number not seen since Larsson and Russell were here. Even a good d-man is going to make one major error per game, on average. Larsson was at  just 0.93 and 1.11 major mistakes on Grade A shots per game in his best years here, 2019-20 and 2020-21. It would be great to see Nurse in that same territory.

Mattias Ekholm, less than 1.2 major mistakes on Grade A shots ES per game. What applies to Nurse also applies to Ekholm, a large, experienced and highly capable d-man. If these two rise up to the defensive level of Larsson and Russell in their primes — and, again, this is also dependent on the Oilers coaches coming up with a sharper, stingier defensive system that protects the slot area first, second and third — then the Oilers will be a brutal team to play against, excellent both on the attack and on defence.

Evan Bouchard, 15 even strength goals. Bouchard scored six even strength goals last year, 10 the season before. I’d like to see him explode for 15. I strongly suspect other teams are going to faithfully copy the Vegas zone against Edmonton, keeping two d-men and one forward in the slot area to thwart McDavid and Draisaitl from rushing the puck at the goalie. The best way to beat a zone is with deadly outside shooting. Bouchard is the best bet to accomplish that. He’s got an hellacious outside shot, and if other teams play the zone, he should get plenty of chances to let it rip, making 15 even strength goals well within his capabilities.

Cody Ceci, 14:00 minutes at even strength per game. For Broberg to get more time, something has got to give. Ceci’s play can return to 2021-22 levels, when he was a strong d-man, but that doesn’t mean his ice time has to be as high as it was last year, when he was at 17:08 per game even strength. In the normal development of a team, older vets have to make way for younger talent, and I expect Broberg to step up, with Ceci making way to some extent, even as Ceci plays strong defensive hockey.

Brett Kulak, 25 points, +15. Kulak was weak to start the year, then got stronger in the second half before excelling in the playoffs. He’s ready to build on that momentum and hit new career highs in both points and plus-minus.

Vincent Desharnais, 2:30 short-handed time on ice per game. With his size, reach and battle ability, Desharnais can be a strong penalty killer in the NHL. He showed signs last year, playing 2:14 per game. If he can up that a bit, it will be a signal he’s attaining that goal.

Philip Broberg, at least 14:00 even strength minutes per game. Broberg has the size, reach and high-level skating ability to be a shut down defender in a Top 4 role, so I’d like his stats to reflect that kind of progression. He played just 11:30 per game at even strength last year. If he can get to at least 14:00 per game this year, that would represent progress.

Jack Campbell, a .910 save percentage. Campbell had an .888 save percentage last year. Not good. Not even close to good. His career average is .910. If he can get it back to that — and it should be possible if the Oilers tighten up their slot defence in front of him — the outcry against Campbell will be replaced with a smattering of applause.

Stuart Skinner, a. 912 save percentage. I’m not asking Skinner to be better than he was last year. But if he can replicate last seaon’s solid results, that will be huge for him and the Oilers.